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The poll, produced by SurveyUSA for News Channel 13 in Albany, found the two in a tight race but with the potential for a different result from the showdown between the same candidates two years ago.
In 2022, Molinaro beat Riley by 1.6 points, or 4,500 votes.
District 19 includes all of Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware, Greene, Sullivan, Tioga, and Tompkins counties and parts of Otsego, Rensselaer, and Ulster counties.
The SurveyUSA pollsters spoke with 725 voters, 628 of whom were registered. Standout numbers included that 46 percent of respondents said they were voting for Riley, and 42 percent pointed to Molinaro.
Other notable numbers included a gender gap, in which Riley led by 12 points among women and Molinaro by two points with men.
The poll also found a difference by age when it came to which candidate voters backed. Riley led by 22 points among voters aged 35 to 49, by nine points among 50 to 64-year-old voters, and by one point among voters 65 and older.
The poll showed that Molinaro holds a 13-point lead over Riley in the 18 to 34-year-old range.
Major Issues:
Pollsters found the top issues among the voters were immigration, abortion, health care, and guns.
On abortion, 58 percent said there should be a nationwide right to abortion, and 31 percent said it should be left to each state.
Regarding the migrant issue, voters who thought it was a crisis preferred Molinaro by 70 percent. But those who thought it was a problem and not a crisis preferred Riley by 59 points.
The candidates:
- Molinaro, a Westchester County native from Yonkers, served in the New York State Assembly and as the county executive of Dutchess County. He was also the Republican nominee for New York governor in 2018, ultimately losing to Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo.
- Riley, a Broome County native who clerked on the Ninth Circuit US Court of Appeals, also served as general counsel to former US Sen. Al Franken. He's also a lawyer and former US Department of Labor policy analyst.
Both men responded to the poll via social media, with Molinaro saying on Facebook, “Polling got it wrong two years ago. We will win AGAIN because I put Upstate New Yorkers FIRST, while Josh Riley wants to keep giving taxpayer-funded perks to illegal immigrants.”
Riley posted a response on X, saying: “The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, and we’re going to work our asses off to earn every vote from now til then.”
To view the entire poll, click here.
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